LOCAL ELECTIONS 2023: How accurate was our pre-vote poll?

Brian Cooper | 09 May 2023
LOCAL ELECTIONS 2023: How accurate was our pre-vote poll?

Predicting the future is a tough gig.

And we all know, that in the world of political polling, nothing is certain when it comes to future-gazing.

However, while it’s true that pollsters don’t always get it right … they don’t always get it wrong either.

As the dust settles on the Local Elections 2023, it’s been fantastic and encouraging to see our pre-election poll come *very* close to the final projected national vote share result.

The projected national share estimates how parties would do had the whole country behaved in a similar way to the places voting last week.

According to polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice, the BBC’s elections analyst, the projected national voter share based on the 2023 local election result looked like this:

On Sky News, election analyst Professor Michael Thrasher had a similar set of results:

What is encouraging, and reassuring, is that our polling, conducted on 27th-28th April, predicted the following results:

This was our debut in election polling and we were confident that our results would not be a million miles away from the reality.

But to be so close is extremely encouraging and demonstrates very well how our diligent and robust approach produces accurate and reliable results.

While we don’t proclaim to be star-gazing prophets, we were always confident our polling methodology would pass its first serious test.

As well as voter intention polling, we also conduct polling for several national media outlets. If you’d like to work with us, please drop us a line: office@omnisis.co.uk.

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