Voters predict Labour majority at next general election, new poll shows

Mike Underwood | 10 March 2023
Voters predict Labour majority at next general election, new poll shows

Two fifths of voters predict a Labour majority win at the next general election – as support for the Opposition hit 50% in the latest voter intention poll by Omnisis.

The pollsters asked Brits their predicted outcomes for the next general election with 39% saying a Labour majority, 17% a Conservative majority, 8% predicting a Labour-led coalition and 7% saying a Tory-led coalition.

Only 4% predicted a minority Labour government and 2% for a minority Tory government. 21% did not know and 2% predicted ‘something else’.

In their weekly voter intention poll, Omnisis also found Labour’s lead over the Conservatives increased to 24 points to 50% against the Tory’s 26%.

Brian Cooper, Managing Director at Omnisis, said: “Labour have led in our voter intention polls since we launched them last year, but we wanted to how that would translate into a general election result.

“It is interesting to see that, despite being behind in the polls, a fifth of people predict a majority Conservative government. Perhaps also surprising is that only two fifths predict a majority Labour government given their vote share in the polls has rarely dropped below 40% in the last 12 months.

“What is for sure, it is going to be an interesting run-up to the next election.”

Meanwhile, despite “Stop the Boats” grabbing the headlines, we asked voters to rank which of the Conservative Party’s five key priorities should be their main focus. 

Based on a summary of respondents’ top three ranked choices from recent government priorities, they said tackling NHS waiting lists and growing the economy are far more important issues than immigration:

  • 76% Cut NHS waiting lists
  • 71% Grow the economy
  • 69% Halve inflation
  • 50% Reduce debt
  • 33% Stop the boats

In other polling trackers:


  • Labour’s lead over the Conservatives increased to 24 points as they hit 50% in this week’s poll:
    • Lab: 50% (+5) 
    • Con: 26% (NC) 
    • LD: 7% (-4) 
    • SNP: 4% (NC) 
    • Ref: 6% (NC) 
    • Green: 5% (-1)


  • Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating picked up another point this week and is now on -5:

    • Approve: 29% (-2)
    • Disapprove: 34% (-3) 
    • Don’t know: 38% (+6)

  • Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer, continues to lead as the nation’s preferred choice as Best Prime Minister, as he picked up another two points this week:

    • Sir Keir Starmer: 38% (+2)
    • Rishi Sunak: 30% (-1) 
    • Don’t Know: 32% (-1)


  • Our Brexit sentiment tracker showed another bump in favour of the UK re-joining the EU. When asked how people would vote if there were another EU Referendum tomorrow, this is what they said (excluding don’t knows and would not vote):
    • Stay Out: 37% (-3)
    • Re-join: 63% (+3) 

The polls, conducted on 9th-10th March 2023, questioned 1,323 people and is weighted to a national representative population. The tables will be published here:


Image credit: Descrier, CC BY 2.0 <>, via Wikimedia Commons

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